Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16586

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16585, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16586
    31 Oct 2026, 20:35 UTC

    THBS3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTHBS3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered0c2c97fdd87f9ee2

    discovery-0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.76 p=0.019 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    70e61f2b793cd0b45cd532c0…
    follows 9534a1ff47e1…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16586: THBS3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.030, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.06. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.032, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.72 to -0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.030, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for THBS3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.