Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16584

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.181). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16583, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16584
    31 Oct 2026, 20:32 UTC

    FAM163B

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFAM163B in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3770fc7a209f67ea

    discovery-0.49 p=0.181 n=9

    replication-0.59 p=0.098 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.49, p 0.181)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    9c7f0eb2b2e9cf9c1df24192…
    follows a6ba48a845d8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16584: FAM163B in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18), 95% CI -0.74 to +0.07. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.46 (p 0.055, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.64 (p 0.0039, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.54 to -0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.41 (p 0.087, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FAM163B in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.