Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16564

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.825). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16563, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16564
    31 Oct 2026, 20:07 UTC

    ZNF391

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionZNF391 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered18d5611d2e7b7bb4

    discovery-0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    replication-0.31 p=0.414 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.825)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    86148251da5a21c8e6a3b0ce…
    follows 675dfce0021e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16564: ZNF391 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.35. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.16 (p 0.538, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.23 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.14 (p 0.585, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ZNF391 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.