Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16552

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16551, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16552
    31 Oct 2026, 19:51 UTC

    CD37

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCD37 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered390fa55058dd82a5

    discovery-0.58 p=0.102 n=9

    replication+0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.58, p 0.102)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e7a357d80c37abb04f41e99d…
    follows cdee66ff6b0d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16552: CD37 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18), 95% CI -0.66 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.45 (p 0.062, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.39 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.28 (p 0.261, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: -0.62 (p 0.0064, n 18) vs -0.28 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CD37 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CD37 · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.35 p 0.214 (needs p < 1.4e-4)