Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16536

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16535, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16536
    31 Oct 2026, 19:29 UTC

    CDK16

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCDK16 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb9a5367849edc0d0

    discovery-0.09 p=0.815 n=9

    replication+0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.09, p 0.815)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3f2b48822487f9f9e242cf7d…
    follows 7eeba24e3e7e…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16536: CDK16 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18), 95% CI -0.54 to +0.38. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.16 (p 0.515, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.15 (p 0.555, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to +0.00, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.10 (p 0.690, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDK16 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.