Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16534

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16533, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16534
    31 Oct 2026, 19:26 UTC

    FRMD8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionFRMD8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered6ed6ff09b8774c47

    discovery-0.38 p=0.309 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.724 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.38, p 0.309)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    73ba66d51de2c53624a2886d…
    follows 907b27efa0cb…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16534: FRMD8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18), 95% CI -0.76 to +0.02. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.42 (p 0.086, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.60 to -0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for FRMD8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.