Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16529

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16528, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16529
    31 Oct 2026, 19:20 UTC

    PLXDC2

    microglia, braak

    predictionPLXDC2 in microglia tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda1204a1d9216dbc0

    discovery+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication+0.29 p=0.456 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    89d54e8f60b47c91e99e78ac…
    follows bf2c309d8662…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16529: PLXDC2 in microglia, braak

power
full sample +0.15 (p 0.544, n 18), 95% CI -0.34 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
microglia share of nuclei vs axis -0.11 (p 0.652); controlling for it: +0.22 (p 0.389, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.05 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLXDC2 in microglia.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.