Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16527

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16526, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16527
    31 Oct 2026, 19:18 UTC

    LUC7L3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLUC7L3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered9d4a09f13215c925

    discovery+0.06 p=0.873 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.873)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8a9dc490ef679491f2d7a69b…
    follows 302dde71ac65…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16527: LUC7L3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.24 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.43 (p 0.075, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LUC7L3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.