Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16521

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16520, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16521
    31 Oct 2026, 19:09 UTC

    TYW5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTYW5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registereda8f941246beff556

    discovery+0.12 p=0.749 n=9

    replication-0.52 p=0.151 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.749)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cd81037a6794105411c228a4…
    follows e535b1c2c9fd…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16521: TYW5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.33 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.18 (p 0.465, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TYW5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.