Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16501

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.911). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16500, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16501
    31 Oct 2026, 18:42 UTC

    EXOSC3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEXOSC3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered267e2d10845a68ad

    discovery-0.04 p=0.911 n=9

    replication+0.42 p=0.258 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.04, p 0.911)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    a58c537dc727cc3a844cb1a9…
    follows 5c5a0a614065…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16501: EXOSC3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18), 95% CI -0.32 to +0.59. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.328, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.33, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.482, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EXOSC3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.