Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 0165

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.371). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 164, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 0165
    16 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC

    SCN9A

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionSCN9A in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered583a2c410a1d2372

    discovery-0.34 p=0.371 n=9

    replication+0.19 p=0.630 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.371)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f3d4c9d970fe668f6159c3ef…
    follows d4236d8dc33a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 0165: SCN9A in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.444, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.379, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.35 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCN9A in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.