Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16496

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.204). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16495, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16496
    31 Oct 2026, 18:36 UTC

    TBC1D32

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTBC1D32 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered011c1baa276b3f52

    discovery-0.47 p=0.204 n=9

    replication+0.85 p=0.0040 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.47, p 0.204)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e6dbb9259aea44e96004d65d…
    follows 30b8f4e5daaf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16496: TBC1D32 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.341, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.63. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.15 to +0.39, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.341, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TBC1D32 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.