Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16487

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16486, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16487
    31 Oct 2026, 18:23 UTC

    CST1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCST1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered78a219ddc20b82d1

    discovery+0.04 p=0.924 n=9

    replication-0.14 p=0.725 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.04, p 0.924)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f378cdd2803fd6fa4b2270ed…
    follows edf69399c9ea…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16487: CST1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18), 95% CI -0.57 to +0.36. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.11 (p 0.658, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.29 (p 0.243, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.27 to -0.03, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.13 (p 0.597, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CST1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.