Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16481

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.250). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16480, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16481
    31 Oct 2026, 18:14 UTC

    CDH6

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCDH6 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5e56f96af9cc3662

    discovery+0.43 p=0.250 n=9

    replication+0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.43, p 0.250)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    743521491a79fd9dfedca762…
    follows 049f25fa423c…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16481: CDH6 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18), 95% CI -0.04 to +0.75. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.61 (p 0.0069, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.58 (p 0.012, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.35 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.44 (p 0.069, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CDH6 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.