Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16479

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.81 p 0.0087; held-out -0.16 p 0.680). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16478, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16479
    31 Oct 2026, 18:12 UTC

    DMBT1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDMBT1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered72026eda2327e771

    discovery-0.81 p=0.0087 n=9

    replication-0.16 p=0.680 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.81 p 0.0087; held-out -0.16 p 0.680)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    d05c30aee0717b0436833c6b…
    follows 1077409472c8…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16479: DMBT1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18), 95% CI -0.75 to +0.03. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.47 (p 0.050, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.56 (p 0.017, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.61 to -0.37, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.44 (p 0.067, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DMBT1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.