Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16472

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.576). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16471, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16472
    31 Oct 2026, 18:03 UTC

    GAS2L3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGAS2L3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede795f6e21552b896

    discovery+0.22 p=0.576 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.22, p 0.576)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    22e774c9153985fdbb118a48…
    follows 697617e5ec50…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16472: GAS2L3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.43 (p 0.079, n 18), 95% CI -0.05 to +0.74. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.027, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.33 to +0.55, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.43 (p 0.079, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GAS2L3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.