Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16468

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16467, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16468
    31 Oct 2026, 17:58 UTC

    ASGR1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionASGR1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered35b71f639ce39e11

    discovery+0.03 p=0.946 n=9

    replication-0.54 p=0.136 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.03, p 0.946)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    dbad7512a5059e7a683868ae…
    follows 16d0499d1fcf…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16468: ASGR1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18), 95% CI -0.60 to +0.31. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.34 (p 0.167, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.34 to -0.09, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ASGR1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.