Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16464

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.778). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16463, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16464
    31 Oct 2026, 17:52 UTC

    RPL37A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPL37A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredb270cbb69d353020

    discovery-0.11 p=0.778 n=9

    replication+0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.11, p 0.778)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c59f478096a47d99e89b5389…
    follows 7713330bd7d8…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16464: RPL37A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.12 (p 0.640, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.24 (p 0.346, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.08 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.476, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPL37A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.