Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16442

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.069). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16441, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16442
    31 Oct 2026, 17:22 UTC

    SLC19A3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSLC19A3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered901bd8f51ae343de

    discovery+0.63 p=0.069 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.63, p 0.069)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    6a7bafcf94530c43fe846c32…
    follows 9a9741f4496d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16442: SLC19A3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18), 95% CI -0.12 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.32 (p 0.194, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.27 to +0.51, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SLC19A3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.