Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16438

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.756). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16437, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16438
    31 Oct 2026, 17:17 UTC

    LIMA1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLIMA1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered99edd111d40d2e89

    discovery+0.12 p=0.756 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.12, p 0.756)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1b7cb38f38ce6cf4f0e42cf4…
    follows 7da990409f09…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16438: LIMA1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.894, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.04 (p 0.861, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.11 to +0.11, sign flips 5; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LIMA1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.