Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16432

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.619). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16431, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16432
    31 Oct 2026, 17:08 UTC

    QPRT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionQPRT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered76c9496b690660fe

    discovery+0.19 p=0.619 n=9

    replication-0.56 p=0.116 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.19, p 0.619)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d507b8932e24e013a41aa54d…
    follows 8bef93d9e3b6…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16432: QPRT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18), 95% CI -0.59 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.13 (p 0.609, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.31 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.17 (p 0.509, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for QPRT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.