Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16430

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.498). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16429, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16430
    31 Oct 2026, 17:06 UTC

    DUT

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionDUT in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered7dd786e5a2d4b6ee

    discovery+0.26 p=0.498 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.618 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.498)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f10cab142caf017fd06e2bcf…
    follows 94aa483274ae…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16430: DUT in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18), 95% CI -0.30 to +0.61. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.19 (p 0.450, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.10 to +0.34, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.20 (p 0.429, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for DUT in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.