Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16422

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.738). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16421, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16422
    31 Oct 2026, 16:55 UTC

    NLRP12

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionNLRP12 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered5b54102a18c9f193

    discovery+0.13 p=0.738 n=9

    replication+0.05 p=0.907 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.13, p 0.738)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    d3138d4d293d2878502ca723…
    follows 7065cb38db68…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16422: NLRP12 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18), 95% CI -0.39 to +0.54. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.09 (p 0.728, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.20 (p 0.418, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.04 to +0.20, sign flips 2; without severely affected donors +0.09 (p 0.715, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for NLRP12 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.