Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16403

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.265). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16402, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16403
    31 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC

    SAMD9

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSAMD9 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered60abe5e39bf5c669

    discovery+0.42 p=0.265 n=9

    replication+0.45 p=0.230 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.42, p 0.265)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    46fa729b3879b1f7163b8908…
    follows 18259e05fa00…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16403: SAMD9 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18), 95% CI -0.23 to +0.65. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.19 (p 0.439, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.32 (p 0.201, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.18 to +0.42, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.27 (p 0.285, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SAMD9 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.