Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1640

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.962). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1639, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1640
    18 Oct 2026, 02:55 UTC

    GATAD2A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionGATAD2A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8537c7afac417fd8

    discovery-0.02 p=0.962 n=9

    replication-0.19 p=0.623 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.02, p 0.962)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    236cb8a4b0dc147930b714e5…
    follows a0176fcb461a…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1640: GATAD2A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18), 95% CI -0.64 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.25 (p 0.315, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.61 (p 0.0077, n 18) vs -0.25 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for GATAD2A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up GATAD2A · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.65 p 0.021 (needs p < 9.3e-4)