Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16398

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16397, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16398
    31 Oct 2026, 16:22 UTC

    BCLAF1

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionBCLAF1 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered1d3111ef96e9655b

    discovery+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication+0.41 p=0.277 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    48ba8d169b1488309dc09453…
    follows 652990fd12fe…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16398: BCLAF1 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18), 95% CI -0.09 to +0.73. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.43 (p 0.077, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.45 (p 0.059, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.32 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.39 (p 0.107, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for BCLAF1 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.