Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16394

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.471). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16393, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16394
    31 Oct 2026, 16:16 UTC

    KDM6A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionKDM6A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2d0f4b805924e372

    discovery-0.28 p=0.471 n=9

    replication+0.62 p=0.073 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.28, p 0.471)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    1d028166b3ec4121195efb2c…
    follows de705b3b2f80…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16394: KDM6A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18), 95% CI -0.35 to +0.57. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.33 (p 0.185, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.02 to +0.28, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.14 (p 0.573, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for KDM6A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.