Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16392

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.255). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16391, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16392
    31 Oct 2026, 16:13 UTC

    MMP24

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionMMP24 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered54c451f2d2dd39a7

    discovery-0.42 p=0.255 n=9

    replication-0.68 p=0.045 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.42, p 0.255)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8a51ae1dd688956411e23ac4…
    follows a5f960122801…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16392: MMP24 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18), 95% CI -0.79 to -0.05. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.64 (p 0.0045, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.66 to -0.45, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.51 (p 0.031, n 18). robust.
cell type
strongest in microglia: -0.61 (p 0.0075, n 18) vs -0.51 in dopamine neurons. proposing microglia.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for MMP24 in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up MMP24 · microglia · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.25 p 0.374 (needs p < 1.4e-4)