Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16390

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16389, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16390
    31 Oct 2026, 16:11 UTC

    TRIM8

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTRIM8 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered45d92d4a46026e66

    discovery-0.07 p=0.859 n=9

    replication+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.07, p 0.859)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    3ee2abc17b8d8745dfe45006…
    follows 188af0e6cda5…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16390: TRIM8 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18), 95% CI -0.53 to +0.40. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.12 (p 0.633, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.24 to +0.05, sign flips 1; without severely affected donors -0.08 (p 0.741, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TRIM8 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.