Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16382

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.877). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16381, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16382
    31 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC

    PSMD2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPSMD2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4335d2072efad9b2

    discovery+0.06 p=0.877 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.518 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.06, p 0.877)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    7aa0190d1832d0a04e22b4da…
    follows cf6b568093fe…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16382: PSMD2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18), 95% CI -0.52 to +0.41. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.21 to +0.04, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PSMD2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.