Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16380

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.187). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16379, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16380
    31 Oct 2026, 15:57 UTC

    EHD2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionEHD2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered16cd9c35515eb7df

    discovery-0.48 p=0.187 n=9

    replication-0.20 p=0.599 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.48, p 0.187)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    fa994225999f1be8c4bbc982…
    follows 8ec9b3320204…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16380: EHD2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18), 95% CI -0.70 to +0.15. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.35 (p 0.156, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.37 (p 0.135, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.47 to -0.26, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.34 (p 0.164, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for EHD2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.