Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16375

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16374, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16375
    31 Oct 2026, 15:49 UTC

    SCARA5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSCARA5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4adb6ede05abe20f

    discovery+0.00 p=1.000 n=9

    replication-0.55 p=0.127 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.00, p 1.000)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    cf4699ee61b269f4ae2ead21…
    follows 189fe7aafa78…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16375: SCARA5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18), 95% CI -0.58 to +0.33. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.15 (p 0.544, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.22 (p 0.374, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.30 to -0.05, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.16 (p 0.532, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SCARA5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.