Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1637

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.020; held-out -0.11 p 0.778). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1636, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1637
    18 Oct 2026, 02:50 UTC

    PRR16

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPRR16 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered283e185bc78f663c

    discovery+0.75 p=0.020 n=9

    replication-0.11 p=0.778 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery +0.75 p 0.020; held-out -0.11 p 0.778)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    57c92f8bcdc01d75774845e7…
    follows 4487593d7433…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1637: PRR16 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18), 95% CI -0.00 to +0.77. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.46 (p 0.056, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.53 (p 0.022, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.39 to +0.62, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.47 (p 0.051, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PRR16 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.