Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16367

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.533). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16366, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16367
    31 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC

    LRP11

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionLRP11 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerede778c6205cada3e1

    discovery+0.24 p=0.533 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.928 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.24, p 0.533)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    40e51a2ffba6df199f29f6e6…
    follows 81fcf3ff1316…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16367: LRP11 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18), 95% CI -0.33 to +0.58. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.18 (p 0.487, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.11 (p 0.652, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.06 to +0.30, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.16 (p 0.526, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for LRP11 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.