Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 1635

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.222). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 1634, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 1635
    18 Oct 2026, 02:47 UTC

    ATP4A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionATP4A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerededca757d2a17199c

    discovery-0.45 p=0.222 n=9

    replication+0.09 p=0.825 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.45, p 0.222)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    347e914e37e45ba2408811b0…
    follows 0efe59dba4c0…

Covered by the on-chain checkpoint of receipt 10865 (2026-10-26 13:05 UTC). See the checkpoint on Robinhood Chain. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 1635: ATP4A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.37 (p 0.130, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.024, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.45 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ATP4A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.