Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16341

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16340, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16341
    31 Oct 2026, 15:02 UTC

    SPIN2A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionSPIN2A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered81e09b60fad8aaa0

    discovery-0.32 p=0.407 n=9

    replication+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.32, p 0.407)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    41a15b67c7c56a54eba37489…
    follows 0506442a68a3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16341: SPIN2A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18), 95% CI -0.49 to +0.45. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.07 (p 0.794, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.07 (p 0.781, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.11, sign flips 7; without severely affected donors -0.03 (p 0.922, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for SPIN2A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.