Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16331

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.380). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16330, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16331
    31 Oct 2026, 14:48 UTC

    PEX5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPEX5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2268ad47ffa7ba2d

    discovery+0.33 p=0.380 n=9

    replication-0.21 p=0.586 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.33, p 0.380)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    caeeeb5ac65e61f52e053d2b…
    follows 4fe3b3fe0600…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16331: PEX5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18), 95% CI -0.47 to +0.47. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.09 (p 0.709, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.09 to +0.14, sign flips 8; without severely affected donors +0.00 (p 0.997, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PEX5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.