Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16329

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.154). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16328, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16329
    31 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC

    OGN

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionOGN in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered57a7ae66a657fc55

    discovery+0.52 p=0.154 n=9

    replication+0.89 p=0.0012 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.52, p 0.154)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    00b2b392c0f71689080f0572…
    follows 80556f6438ae…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16329: OGN in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18), 95% CI +0.12 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.57 (p 0.014, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.52 (p 0.028, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.49 to +0.72, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.55 (p 0.017, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for OGN in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.