Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16322

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16321, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16322
    31 Oct 2026, 14:34 UTC

    CUL4A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCUL4A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered8341bc157d7b5451

    discovery-0.21 p=0.581 n=9

    replication-0.43 p=0.244 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.21, p 0.581)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ff086882a71b1b7f243cd6d9…
    follows 0da6411fa10b…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16322: CUL4A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.28 (p 0.254, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.44 to -0.22, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.30 (p 0.228, n 18). fragile.
cell type
strongest in oligodendrocytes: +0.64 (p 0.0039, n 18) vs -0.30 in dopamine neurons. proposing oligodendrocytes.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CUL4A in dopamine neurons.

follow-up registered; not confirmed in substantia nigra, an independent cohort.
follow-up CUL4A · oligodendrocytes · braak: substantia nigra, an independent cohort (Parkinson's or LBD vs controls) -0.15 p 0.594 (needs p < 1.4e-4)