Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16315

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16314, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16315
    31 Oct 2026, 14:23 UTC

    RPL35A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRPL35A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered3be0e7a0bfca4baa

    discovery+0.37 p=0.329 n=9

    replication-0.17 p=0.656 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.37, p 0.329)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    adb3a23a988155fde1bcc6e4…
    follows 03fa24be3e05…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16315: RPL35A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18), 95% CI -0.31 to +0.60. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.15 (p 0.561, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.21 (p 0.393, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.07 to +0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.18 (p 0.471, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RPL35A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.