Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16311

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16310, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16311
    31 Oct 2026, 14:18 UTC

    RGCC

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRGCC in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredcf78d7667df83370

    discovery+0.26 p=0.493 n=9

    replication+0.47 p=0.197 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.26, p 0.493)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2a5c9090c27323532472b747…
    follows 33c1be5b5b41…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16311: RGCC in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18), 95% CI -0.13 to +0.71. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.31 (p 0.211, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.47 (p 0.047, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.28 to +0.54, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.36 (p 0.148, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RGCC in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.