Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16285

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.064). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16284, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16285
    31 Oct 2026, 13:45 UTC

    RASSF5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRASSF5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredf59cb6a0a90e0099

    discovery-0.64 p=0.064 n=9

    replication+0.22 p=0.571 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.64, p 0.064)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    2c704ef7653f61d19ced491b…
    follows 016af4dab15d…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16285: RASSF5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18), 95% CI -0.73 to +0.08. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.38 (p 0.116, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.54 (p 0.021, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.53 to -0.32, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.40 (p 0.101, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RASSF5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.