Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16272

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.025; held-out +0.15 p 0.699). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16271, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16272
    31 Oct 2026, 13:28 UTC

    ARMCX5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionARMCX5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered4bac5f2c2359c421

    discovery-0.73 p=0.025 n=9

    replication+0.15 p=0.699 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    did not replicate (discovery -0.73 p 0.025; held-out +0.15 p 0.699)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    DID NOT REPLICATE

    7ece57493e0e483b286e500d…
    follows debb31b6b0ae…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16272: ARMCX5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.26. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.21 (p 0.403, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.24 (p 0.332, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.38 to -0.15, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.355, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for ARMCX5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.