Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16266

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.202). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16265, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16266
    31 Oct 2026, 13:20 UTC

    PLCXD3

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLCXD3 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered60b7d4ea692026ce

    discovery+0.47 p=0.202 n=9

    replication+0.58 p=0.103 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.47, p 0.202)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    ddaf36c2c85a700a109c12f3…
    follows f010dc732eb1…

Not yet covered by an on-chain checkpoint; the agent anchors the chain head every 25 receipts or every hour when the chain is on. Previous receipt Next

The swarm's case

receipt 16266: PLCXD3 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.54 (p 0.019, n 18), 95% CI +0.10 to +0.81. the interval excludes zero: something may be there, smaller than a half can see.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.55 (p 0.018, n 18). holds up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.51 (p 0.029, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.48 to +0.64, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.54 (p 0.019, n 18). robust.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLCXD3 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.