Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16262

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16261, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16262
    31 Oct 2026, 13:14 UTC

    TSPYL5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionTSPYL5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered82e40bbb2e8c6f65

    discovery-0.55 p=0.123 n=9

    replication+0.28 p=0.470 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.55, p 0.123)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    c3e4aa5a3be8695c08627a68…
    follows c0fa633ea2ea…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16262: TSPYL5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18), 95% CI -0.50 to +0.43. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.03 (p 0.908, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.10 (p 0.702, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.17 to +0.07, sign flips 3; without severely affected donors -0.04 (p 0.874, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TSPYL5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.