Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16256

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16255, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16256
    31 Oct 2026, 13:06 UTC

    PLA1A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionPLA1A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registeredc8b5ac69b9d70495

    discovery-0.18 p=0.639 n=9

    replication-0.49 p=0.181 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.18, p 0.639)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f1001cea21dd7fa3c2e99075…
    follows e8fcd775c372…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16256: PLA1A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18), 95% CI -0.67 to +0.20. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.30 (p 0.232, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.53 (p 0.025, n 18). not the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.21, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.29 (p 0.239, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for PLA1A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.