Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16254

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.374). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16253, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16254
    31 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC

    YIPF5

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionYIPF5 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered2cd8c8f58062dfbd

    discovery+0.34 p=0.374 n=9

    replication-0.04 p=0.909 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho +0.34, p 0.374)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    8842e85c7d3c909edf255513…
    follows 8da7bfdaff22…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16254: YIPF5 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18), 95% CI -0.26 to +0.64. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: +0.31 (p 0.204, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range +0.14 to +0.38, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors +0.24 (p 0.337, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for YIPF5 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.