Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16251

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.212). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16250, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16251
    31 Oct 2026, 13:01 UTC

    TMEM100

    oligodendrocytes, braak

    predictionTMEM100 in oligodendrocytes tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registerededa3dc8023dc2266

    discovery-0.46 p=0.212 n=9

    replication+0.13 p=0.743 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.46, p 0.212)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    735de3b0fa5c76732618585b…
    follows 0ac41c1bcf11…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16251: TMEM100 in oligodendrocytes, braak

power
full sample -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18), 95% CI -0.63 to +0.27. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
oligodendrocytes share of nuclei vs axis +0.03 (p 0.915); controlling for it: -0.14 (p 0.567, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.36 to -0.11, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.23 (p 0.369, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for TMEM100 in oligodendrocytes.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.