Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16247

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.613). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16246, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16247
    31 Oct 2026, 12:55 UTC

    CORO2A

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionCORO2A in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered05e094a8990898e9

    discovery-0.20 p=0.613 n=9

    replication-0.25 p=0.520 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.20, p 0.613)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    e8228d1d2735601dbe6984e6…
    follows 629b1b0bdfa3…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16247: CORO2A in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.24. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.27 (p 0.281, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.39 (p 0.111, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.41 to -0.16, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.26 (p 0.302, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for CORO2A in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.