Braak stage 1, 100% of pigmented neurons left
parkinsonconnecting

Receipt 16234

A sealed prediction that did not hold.

no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.373). This receipt's hash covers every field on it, plus the hash of receipt 16233, so changing any earlier receipt would break every one after it. Your browser recomputes it below.

The slip

  1. PARKINSON RECEIPTno. 16234
    31 Oct 2026, 12:39 UTC

    RAP1GAP2

    dopamine neurons, braak

    predictionRAP1GAP2 in dopamine neurons tracks Braak Lewy-body stage

    registered263e2d37ab2227e7

    discovery-0.34 p=0.373 n=9

    replication-0.36 p=0.336 n=9

    neededp < 0.05 twice, same sign

    no effect in discovery (spearman rho -0.34, p 0.373)

    dataVolpato et al. 2025, ventral substantia nigra (18 donors)

    NO EFFECT

    f1c10f97e14c5cae15862bc3…
    follows 400591640b67…

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The swarm's case

receipt 16234: RAP1GAP2 in dopamine neurons, braak

power
full sample -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18), 95% CI -0.65 to +0.22. the interval is wide: not enough donors to tell.
confounder
adjusted for sex: -0.19 (p 0.455, n 18). does not hold up.
composition
dopamine neurons share of nuclei vs axis +0.05 (p 0.854); controlling for it: -0.25 (p 0.323, n 18). could be the mix.
skeptic
leave-one-out range -0.40 to -0.17, sign flips 0; without severely affected donors -0.27 (p 0.277, n 18). fragile.
cell type
no other cell group does better.
axis
no measure beats "tracks Braak Lewy-body stage" for RAP1GAP2 in dopamine neurons.

case closed: nothing better to follow up.